War games have played a crucial role in shaping military strategies, political decisions, and diplomatic relationships in the United States. Originating in the nineteenth century with the military campaign game Kriegsspiel, war games have evolved to become an influential tool in influencing choices about budgets, weapons, foreign policies, and international power.

During World War II, war games played a significant role in shaping naval tactics, logistics, and aircraft carrier deployments. The Cold War era saw the evolution of war games to incorporate the impact of nuclear weapons, with senior civilian officials participating in immersive scenarios meant to recreate the high-stakes decision-making of a nuclear crisis.

The decision to run war games signals the intentions and interests of the players, with a behind-the-scenes bureaucratic and political fight to determine which games will be “sponsored” and prioritized. The recent US-China war games suggest a more hawkish approach to US policy towards China, with the assumption that the defense of Taiwan is a strategic interest for the United States.

While war games can influence constituencies in Congress, the armed services, opposing political parties, or the public, they can also become dangerous tools of propaganda to advocate for war if manipulated. To better understand war games, it is important to ask questions about the games’ outcomes, including how the players arrived at those outcomes, who is paying for and convening the game, and what their motivations are for running the game.

Ultimately, war games do not predict the future but can shape it. Today’s war games between the United States and China should be viewed as a warning about future potential conflicts.